Mortgage Rates

Mortgage Rates Anthony Hood Equity Investment Capital Office: 949-891-0067 Email: tony@equityinvestmentcapital.com website: www.equityinvestmentcapital.com After a 550 point decline in the DJIA in the last two days, this morning the index is opening slightly better. Global stock markets mixed today, some better some worse but overall not much change in any global equity markets after the Bernanke shock on Wednesday. The world is facing the possible end of central banks driving markets and having now to adjust to the real underlying fundamentals. After years of Fed money printing and low interest rates the new question, one that has been pushed under the rug for four years, what is the real status of the US and global economies? Taking away the blanket of comfort is always a chilling; now markets and economists have to actually look at the economic outlook from the perspective of reduced stimulus. What exactly is the consumer capable and willing to do with spending, what will small business do about employment as interest rates increase, what is the real fair value of stock prices when the stimulus is subtracted? Lots of questions with no significant answers at the moment. At 9:30 the DJIA opened +78, NASDAQ +8, S&P +7; 10 yr at 2.44% +3 bp and 30 yr MBS price +13 bp frm yesterday’s massacre. Wednesday Bernanke shocked the financial world when he surprisingly defined what and when the Fed would do; up to that point it was all speculation frm Fed watchers and even within the Fed itself. Now the gauntlet has been laid; at least it has been outlined. Don’t overlook that Bernanke also said that the actual actions by the Fed to begin unwinding the stimulus was dependent on the economy, presently the Fed believes the economy is on the road to recovery although slowly. That Fed view led to Bernanke’s decision to begin the tapering. The Fed’s track record on economic forecasting isn’t any better than private forecasts just because it is the Fed, so while the momentary outlook for interest rates has become more bearish it isn’t cast in stone unless the Fed’s economic outlook is proven correct. So, where are we now? For all the talk and forecasts, and the Fed’s actual future actions, it depends on how healthy the economy really is when seen without the central bank supporting investments and low interest rates. Recent economic data overall has been slightly better based only on estimates and forecasts, but we ask this; is employment increasing with new jobs that pay wages at levels that will improve 80% of wage earners? Will businesses continue to report solid earnings and profits as they have in recent quarters? When ObamaCare kicks in in 2014 what impact will it have on individuals and business ( costs will increase)? Presently markets are not thinking about any of it, all market action in the last two weeks has been driven by reducing leverage and making decisions on the fly. Let’s give this a couple of months; we still hold that the economy isn’t as fundamentally strong as what most, including the Fed, believe it is. All said though the present situation based on performance in the markets remains very bearish for interest rates and for equity markets. Our worn moniker, don’t fight the tape is still the best advice and the only way mortgage lender and originators can look at it. Opinions about the future, even two months from now I terms of conviction are as thin as shaved ham at the deli. The 10 yr note is toying with longer term support at the 2.40% levels but presently appears to be failing.

Mortgage Rates

Mortgage Rates Anthony Hood Equity Investment Capital Office: 949-891-0067 Email: tony@equityinvestmentcapital.com website: www.equityinvestmentcapital.com Not a good start this morning, after the serious selling yesterday in the bond and stock markets this morning the 10 yr note climbed to 2.43%, up another eight basis points frm yesterday’s increase of 17 bps. Yesterday 30 yr the 3.5 July FNMA coupon price fell 121 bp and GNMA 3.5 fell 177 basis points; the DJIA dropped 206 points. At 9:00 this morning the 10 yr traded at 2.42%, 30 yr MBS price down 57 basis points frm yesterday’s close, the DJIA futures point to an opening down 100 points. Gold crashing, down about $80.00, all global stock markets taking heavy hits. My mother used to say, ‘be careful of what you want, you may get it’; going into the FOMC meeting yesterday and then Bernanke’s press conference markets were clamoring for more clarity from the Fed. For the past six weeks the one constant drum beat within the markets focused on what will the Fed do? Markets wanted clarity. Be careful of what you want, it may not be what you expected; yesterday markets got clarity like a pie in the face and what it markets got wasn’t what was expected….clarity frm Bernanke. Bernanke in his press conference for the first time put details out there about what the Fed will do and when it will do it. Bernanke told the world that the Fed believes the economic outlook is improving and based on the Fed’s forecasts of continued slow improvement (if it continues) the Fed will begin tapering its easing by the end of this year and by mid-2014 all the easing’s will be ended. Shock an Awe panicked markets, interest rates exploded and the US and world stock markets fell like stones. Up until yesterday Fed officials were want to be specific, even Bernanke in his Congressional testimonies recently was reluctant to put specifics out there. Based on the reactions in all markets yesterday so far this morning, markets were not expecting specifics, just more obtuse rhetoric that the Fed is famous for. One thing to keep in mind, Bernanke cautioned that the Fed’s tapering and ending its market support is based on what the Fed believes now, that the economy will continue to improve. If the Fed is wrong, and their track record isn’t much better than all the private estimates, Bernanke made it clear the Fed will keep on with its purchasing of MBSs and treasuries. Economic data, always significant, will have added importance now given the definitive comments frm him yesterday. One thing that is important, Bernanke said the Fed would not sell its MBS securities it holds, a relief because there were increasing concerns the Fed would sell MBSs eventually and add ore increase to mortgage rates. At 8:30 this morning weekly jobless claims were expected to be up 6, as reported claims increased 18K to 354K. The four-week moving average, a less-volatile measure than the weekly figures, climbed to 348,250 last week from 345,750. At 9:30 the DJIA opened -100, NASDAQ -36, S&P -15; the 10 yr at 2.41% +6 bp and 30 yr MBS price -57 bps in price from yesterday’s close. (see below for 10:00 levels). Three key reports at 10:00. May existing home sales expected up 0.5%; sales increased 4.0%, the median sales price $208K, yr/yr sales up 12.9%, the median price up 15.4% yr/yr. The number of days to sell a home down to 39 days compared to 72 days a year ago. May leading economic indicators reported up 0.1% against estimates of +0.2%. The June Philly Fed business index really improved, expected at +1.0 frm -5.2 on the index in May the index increased to 12.5 the best index reading since April 2011; all the interior components were also much stronger than was expected. Even the better data at 10:00 didn’t generate much positive response initially. China appears to be tightening credit by draining reserves to stop predatory lending in the country. China’s seven-day repurchase rate, which measures interbank funding availability, rose 270 basis points, or 2.7 percentage points, to 10.77%. The one-day rate rose by an unprecedented 527 basis points to an all-time high of 12.85%. Also China’s manufacturing is shrinking at a faster pace this month; a preliminary reading of 48.3 for the Chinese Purchasing Managers’ Index (EC11FLAS) released today by HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics compares with the 49.1 median estimate. The importance of China’s economy is another reason US stocks are under pressure. The same story; the bond and mortgage markets remain technically bearish as we have noted since the beginning of May. Take all the debate and outlooks frm pundits, analysts, and economists, wad them into a huge ball and toss them in the basket. All you need to focus on is what the markets themselves are doing and right now markets are in turmoil and declining. Doing that will always keep you in line with the markets regardless of what is written or said even by the Federal Reserve. Our forecasts were that the 10 yr would find some support at 2.40%, this morning the note hit 2.47%, it is still in play at 2.40% on a closing basis. That said, estimates as to how high before a rebound are not as reliable as we would like in our analysis. Look for more volatility through the rest of the day. The bond and mortgage markets, as well as the stock market still reacting to the Fed surprise yesterday, a lot of emotional tension today.

Mortgage Rates

Mortgage Rates Anthony Hood Equity Investment Capital Office: 949-891-0067 Email: tony@equityinvestmentcapital.com website: www.equityinvestmentcapital.com Markets started out today generally unchanged as the world awaits the FOMC policy decision and Bernanke’s press conference this afternoon. It isn’t news that for the last six weeks, since the strong April employment report released on May 3rd that markets have been debating what the Fed may or may not do about cutting back in its QEs. That is about all we have had to think about for over a month now. Today markets’ hope there will be clarity, possibly wishful thinking but hope always springs eternal. QUESTIONS: How will the FOMC policy statement frame the economic conditions and the outlook? Will Bernanke define his view on the economy and interest rate levels? Will he respond to Pres. Obama’s rather surprising comments that Bernanke has spent more time than he wanted at the Fed, suggesting he will not return for another term? What will he have to say about the spike in the 10 yr note yields and mortgage rates over the last six weeks? A lot of questions that have kept markets in volatile movements for too long. Mortgage rates increasing on the drive higher in the rate for the 10 yr treasury note; the housing sector so far not showing much decline but higher mortgage rates frm current levels will have a negative impact on the strongest segment of the economy. The FOMC and Bernanke have a lot to accomplish to clear the air, my thought is that at the end of the day there will be some clarity but won’t be enough to settle markets for very long. The only data this morning was the weekly MBA mortgage applications for last week. Mortgage applications decreased 3.3% from one week earlier, for the week ending June 14, 2013. The Refinance Index decreased 3% from the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 3% from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 4% compared with the previous week and was 12% higher than the same week one year ago. The refinance share of mortgage activity was unchanged at 69% of total applications from the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity was unchanged at 7% of total applications. The government share of purchase applications has been at 29% for the past two weeks, which is the lowest level in the history of this series. The HARP share of refinance applications increased to 31% from 29% the week prior. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($417,500 or less) increased to 4.17%, the highest rate since March 2012, from 4.15%, with points decreasing to 0.41 from 0.48 (including the origination fee) for 80% loans. This is the sixth straight weekly increase for this rate. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with jumbo loan balances (greater than $417,500) decreased to 4.23% from 4.25%, with points increasing to 0.34 from 0.32 (including the origination fee) for 80% loans. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages backed by the FHA increased to 3.85%, the highest rate since April 2012, from 3.81%, with points decreasing to 0.22 from 0.26 (including the origination fee) for 80% loans. The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 3.30% from 3.32%, with points increasing to 0.39 from 0.38 (including the origination fee) for 80% loans. The average contract interest rate for 5/1 ARMs increased to 2.81%, the highest rate since June 2012, from 2.78%, with points increasing to 0.35 from 0.30 (including the origination fee) for 80% loans. At 9:30 the DJIA opened -15, NASDAQ -2, S&P -2. 10 yr at 2.18% unchanged; 30 yr conventionals +8 bp and FHA’s -17 bps. Prior to this afternoon’s events the bond and mortgage markets are still technically bearish. To change that the 10 yr note needs to close at or below 2.10% (now 2.17%) and 30 yr 3.5 July FNMA coupon price needs a close above 103.64 (now at 103.37). Both those levels would break their respective 20 day averages, not since May 3rd have either traded below the 10 yr yield 20 day and above the MBS 20 day average price. Over and above all the debate over the economic outlook and what the Fed may do or not that has dominated everything for six weeks, we have to focus on how the markets are trading technically. It isn’t talk that carries weight but what investors and traders are actually doing with their trades that set the tone.

Mortgage Rates

Mortgage Rates Anthony Hood Equity Investment Capital Office: 949-891-0067 Email: tony@equityinvestmentcapital.com website: www.equityinvestmentcapital.com Yesterday afternoon treasuries and mortgage prices were hit on a news story out of the Financial Times saying the Fed will begin tapering as early as three months frm now. Prior to the news story markets were generally unchanged ahead of the Fed policy statement tomorrow afternoon. The FOMC meeting begins today but there will be nothing frm it until tomorrow. Also tomorrow after the release of the policy statement Bernanke will hold a press conference; if between the policy statement and his press conference it doesn’t stop the increase in interest rates the 10 yr note is very likely to climb to 2.40% and mortgage rates up another 20 basis points in rate for 30 yr loans. At 8:30 this morning May CPI was in line with estimates, up 0.1% overall and the core (ex food and energy) up 0.2%. Inflation isn’t an issue these days, well under the Fed’s 2.0% target; yr/yr CPI +1.7%. The recession in Europe and slower growth in emerging markets such as China, combined with restrained wage gains in the U.S., have made it difficult for companies to raise prices. The lack of inflation gives Fed policy makers, meeting today and tomorrow in Washington, more leeway to address unemployment as they consider whether to dial down their record monetary stimulus. May housing starts were expected up 11.0% after declining 14% in April, as reported starts were up 6.8%, still a good number even though less than forecasts. May building permits were expected to have declined 4.0% as reported down 3.1%. Applications to build one-family homes increased 1.3% to a 622,000 pace, the fastest since May 2008. Starts on multifamily projects such as apartment buildings increased 21.6% to an annualized rate of 315,000. At 9:00 this morning the 10 yr note at 2.21% +3 more basis points and 30 yr MBS prices down 17 bps frm yesterday’s close. Stock indexes were pointing to a slightly better open at 9:30. At 9:30 the DJIA opened +31, NASDAQ +7, S&P +2; 10 yr note 2.21% +3 bp, 30 yr MBS price down 16 bp frm yesterday’s close. Nothing now to be concerned about through the remainder of the day; the day’s trading could be choppy as investors and traders position for the FOMC meeting tomorrow afternoon. The bond and mortgage markets remain bearish both from a fundamental point as well as technically. No matter the personal views, do not under estimate the depth of the present bearishness that exists in the interest rate markets. Tomorrow if the FOMC and Bernanke cannot convince markets that the QEs will continue longer than is currently expected the 10 yr will likely move to 2.40% the next technical target. The FOMC and Bernanke will have to down play the idea that the economy is improving and that unemployment is still too high to trigger the Fed to begin tapering. Bernanke will also have to convince markets that when the Fed does begin to slow its purchases it will be very slow in dialing the QEs back. Another increasing concern in the markets; will Bernanke stay for another term if the opportunity is extended to him? Overnight, President Obama commented that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has ‘stayed a lot longer’ than he wanted, paving the way for what looks like the Chairman’s exit when his term expires in January. Bernanke has been the driving architect for the Fed’s move to prop up the economy by printing money at a rapid rate (QEs), within the Fed there are wide differences opinion over the effectiveness of continued support for interest rates. Who will replace him? Janet Yellen the Vice Chair, or an outsider? Regardless of the who, the main question that will begin to dominate thinking as the calendar falls is will Bernanke’s polices be continued.

Mortgage Rates

Mortgage Rates Anthony Hood Equity Investment Capital Office: 949-891-0067 Email: tony@equityinvestmentcapital.com website: www.equityinvestmentcapital.com The week started with stock ndexes looking strong ahead of the 9:30 open and interest rates relatively unchanged from Friday’s closes. This week is Fed week with the FOMC meeting ending Wednesday afternoon with the release of the policy statement immediately followed by Bernanke’s press conference where he will face questions on details about his thinking on when or if the Fed is going to begin taking the punch bowl away. IN the last month the view that the Fed will begin tapering has gained a lot of momentum. After the strong April employment report in early May the idea the Fed was about finished supporting the rate markets increased geometrically and rates shot higher catching many investors flat footed as well as most large mortgage companies that were not properly hedged, expecting the fed was going to keep buying. The 10 went frm 1.63% to 2.23% in a month (currently 2.14%). Last week as current economic data was reported slightly weaker than estimates and as the FOMC meeting came closer some of the strong comments that the Fed would begin tapering this summer began to wobble. Easy to have a strong opinion when prior to the Fed’s decisions, as the time closes in though most convictions become less solid. The thought that the Fed will not taper soon has increased as the rate markets have become somewhat disorderly with the constant selling, as rates continue higher some believe the Fed will hang on for now in order to keep mortgage rates frm increasing much more. Increasing mortgage rates, if they were to continue to climb as rapidly as in the last m month, may derail the strongest sector of the economy is supporting the idea the fed will say it isn’t about to reduce the buying in the near future. A very difficult call to make about what Bernanke will say or do; the openness that the Fed has supported for Fed officials to speak their minds has certainly stirred the pot with a lot of different opinions. ….“If you think the Fed or government agencies know what is going on with the economy, you're mistaken. Government economists are about as useful as a screen door on a submarine. Their mistakes and failures are so spectacular you couldn't make them up if you tried. Yet now, in a post-crisis world, we trust the same people to know where the economy is, where it is going, and how to manage monetary policy. Central banks say they will know the right time to end the current policies of quantitative easing and financial repression and when to shrink the bloated monetary base. However, given their record at forecasting, how will they know? The Federal Reserve not only failed to predict the recessions of 1990, 2001, and 2007, it also didn't even recognize them after they had already begun. Financial crises frequently happen because central banks cut interest rates too late and hike rates too soon”…. By John Mauldin Jun 15, 2013, Thoughts from the Front Line. This morning at 8:30 the June NY Empire State manufacturing index was a lot stronger than forecasts; the index as reported jumped from -1.43 (contraction under zero) to +7.84, forecasts were for an increase to 0.5. Global stock markets rallied overnight and US stock indexes were strong at 8:00 pointing to a 100 point increase in the DJIA at9:30, the Empire State index had little impact on the strength of futures trading as orders, sales and employment dropped even though the headline was better. At 9:30 the DJIA opened +109, NASDAQ +29, S&P +11; 10 yr note 2.13% -1 bp and 30 yr MBS price +5 bps. At 10:00 the June NAHB housing market index was expected at 45 frm 44 in May; a huge increase to 52, the first time the index has been in positive territory (over 50) since April 2006 and it is the biggest month-to-month increase in the index since 2002. No immediate reaction to the strong index reading but it does continue to support the expectations for the housing sector. The NAHB data did not mention anything about the increasing mortgage rates. The big gain in the index is attributable to the lack of inventory according to the report. From the technical view the bond and mortgage markets remain bearish with about every study and model we use has yet to improve to even the slightest bullish readings. It isn’t so important now with the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. We are not expecting much change in the bond and mortgage market until at least Wednesday afternoon when the FOMC policy statement and Bernanke’s press conference occur.

Mortgage Rates

Mortgage Rates Anthony Hood Equity Investment Capital Office: 949-891-0067 Email: tony@equityinvestmentcapital.com website: www.equityinvestmentcapital.com Yesterday the bond and stock markets rallied as the FOMC meeting gets closer. For the past month markets have been consumed with the belief that the Fed was about to begin reducing its purchases of MBSs and treasuries. As the meeting approaches (next Tuesday and Wednesday) those “rock solid” beliefs are not so solid. Not unusual when there is a major news event approaching investors and traders lessen their aggressiveness. Yesterday on the Fed primary dealers was out saying the Fed isn’t likely to taper as soon as had the increasing belief; Justin Lederer at Cantor said the Fed would not taper next week. His comment came about 3:30 yesterday and sent interest rates down and prices climbing. This morning the 10 traded down another 3 bps in yield prior to 8:30 when May PPI was reported; the overall PPI increased 0.5% on forecasts of a 0.2% but the core rate excluding food and energy was +0.1%. The initial reaction took a bp from the 10 frm 2.12% to 2.13%, down 2 bp frm yesterday’s close. At 9:00 the 3.5 July FNMA coup[on traded 23 bps in price better than yesterday’s close. At 9:15 May industrial production was expected up 0.2% was unchanged; April production originally reported -0.7% was revised to -0.4%. Manufacturing, which makes up 75% of total production, increased 0.1% in May after falling 0.4% in April. Manufacturing increased in May for the first time in three months, helped by a gain in auto production. May capacity utilization expected at 77.8% declined to 77.6%, April originally at 77.8% was revised to 77.7%. Although not a market mover, Q1 current account balance at -$106.1B was up 3.7% frm Q4 -$102.3B as imports in the quarter increased. The current account is the measure of all goods and services including income payments and government transfers; the forecast was for -$111.3B At 9:30 the DJIA opened -9, NASDAQ -2; S&P -1; 10 yr at 2.12% -3 bp and 30 yr MBS prices +29 bps. The final data this week; the mid-month U. of Michigan consumer sentiment index, expected at 84.5 unchanged frm the final April reading, the index was 82.7. No market reaction to the lower sentiment index. From now until next Wednesday afternoon the markets’ main focus will be on the FOMC meeting, its policy statement and Bernanke’s press conference following the meeting. As the days fall off the perception that the Fed will begin to ease away frm the present MBS and treasury buying is waning a little. Recent data and the unusually swift increase in long term interest rates including mortgage rates may not be to Bernanke’s liking. The debating within the Fed will likely to continue but it is possible the Fed will send a message that any reductions in purchases will not be as soon as had been thought over the last six weeks. Technicals still bearish in the bond and mortgage markets. The 20 day average for the 3.5 July FNMA coupon at 103.91, current price . The 20 day on the 10 yr yield at 2.09%, now at 2.11%. Floating is now appropriate but also has risks attached. If floating it is highly recommended to keep alert to changes through the day, So far today markets are doing well but there is a lot of day ahead.

Mortgage Rates

Mortgage Rates Anthony Hood Equity Investment Capital Office: 949-891-0067 Email: tony@equityinvestmentcapital.com website: www.equityinvestmentcapital.com Japan’s stock market took another huge hit last night taking the Nikkei index down 6.0% and now trading in bearish territory. The reaction sent the US stock indexes down and dropped the 10 yr note yield to 2.18%. Europe’s stock markets also were it hard on the Japanese selling. US economic data at 8:30 stopped the global slide in stock markets although Europe is still weaker; US stock indexes at 9:00 were pointing to an unchanged opening and the improvement in the bond market lost much of its gains. Weekly jobless claims were down 12K to 334K, estimates were for claims to have increased 4K to 350K. May retail sales were expected up 0.5%, sales increased 0.6%; excluding autos sales were expected +0.4%, sales increased 0.3%. Also at 8:30 May export prices declined 0.5%, import prices were down 0.6%, both were expected to be up a little. Global stocks fell, sending the benchmark index to a seven-week low, and the yen strengthened after the World Bank cut its growth forecast. U.S. equity-index futures stayed lower after a report showed retail sales rose more than forecast in May. According to the World Bank the global economy will grow 2.2% in 2013, in Jan the Bank forecast growth at 2.4%. More than $2.5 trillion has been erased from the value of global equities since Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said May 22 the central bank could scale back stimulus efforts should the job market show “sustainable improvement.” At 9:30 the DJIA opened -2 after trading down as much as -50 prior to 8:30, NASDAQ -2, S&P -1. The 10 yr at 2.21% -2 bp and 30 yr MBSs +13 bps. It took just three minutes for the DJIA to drop 38 points frm yesterday’s close. At 1:00 Treasury will auction $13B of 30 yr bonds, yesterday the 10 yr auction didn’t see strong demand. So far this morning the stock market continues its downward path; for the first time since last Dec the US stock market has declined three consecutive days. Expect continued volatility today in the stock and bond market. May retail sales better than thought, weekly claims down to 334K and falling import prices down; good data for the economy particularly in the face of the serious selling in Japan’s markets and continued weakness in Europe’s economies all favor the US markets. US treasuries, German bunds and Japanese JGBs all are better this morning after the World Bank cut its forecast for global growth. Investors are still not running to treasuries in any great quantity but also are not selling as much now as we have experienced since the beginning of May. Already today increased volatility in the bond market. Prior to the better retail sales and weekly claims the 10 yr at one point down 6 bps frm yesterday to 2.17% on the Japan stock market decline. Forecasts of softer global growth may support the US bond market but unless the US stock market is perceived to entering a major correction it is unlikely interest rates will decline much frm present levels. Markets believe the Fed is about to begin tapering its QE, that may be seen as either good news for stocks or bad news; good if future economic data improves, bad if data is soft. Next Tuesday and Wednesday the FOMC will meet, markets looking for some clarity frm the group on what Bernanke has in mind. The bond and mortgage market remain technically and fundamentally bearish. We have hung in on floating but so far no improvement and not much decline in prices. Unless there is improvement in the next day or so we will abandon the float suggestion.